Europe is what the French term “le vieux continent”. The continent from whose midst sprang explorers and colonisers, thinkers and emperors, and both the industrial and the agricultural revolutions. However, while the internal landscape of what Mark Mazower termed the “Dark Continent” has arguably become somewhat brighter, is its ability to project its influence across the world slowly fading away?
Europe’s influence, as once manifested by British naval dominance or the Dutch trading empire, is but a distant memory. Although Europe’s economic and military strength arguably began to wane, at least in relative terms, from the beginning of the 20th century it took the Second World War to force the European elites to face up to this harsh reality. Their response was to look to the US, and to project an image of Europe as an ideological, economic and strategic ally, a bulwark vital to preserving US security. This perception was mutual and post WW II Europe’s security and prosperity were greatly aided by both American dollars (Marshall Aid) and guns (NATO).
However, any depiction of Europe as an exhausted continent surviving by virtue of American largesse and defined solely by an American tropism is overly simplistic. Efforts to construct, a European union which would fuse the various attributes of the European Nation states into one cohesive and potent actor have progressed, albeit at a varying pace, since its foundations were sketched out by the Treaty of Rome in 1958. Indeed, the EU is now a Union of 27 countries, a Union which continues to pursue the goal of a borderless economic area with the free movement of capital, goods and people. With a central bank and a common currency to which 16 states adhere, the EU is the singular most successful example of regional integration in the world. Taken as a single entity it is the largest economic unit in the world with a GDP of over $13 billion (PPP).
With this statistic in hand it would seem hard to dismiss the EU as irrelevant, for surely the world’s largest economy has enormous influence in a world seemingly mesmerized by materialism. Yet this fact simply papers over the reality that the European Union remains a grouping of states who seek above all to guard and then to maximise their self interest. As a consequence any effort to act as a coherent bloc engenders a long and complex process which ends in deadlock more often than in agreement. The economic sword which Europe wields is ultimately blunted by the reality that it remains a collection of nation states.
Europe’s hand is further weakened by the demographic weakness of the continent, or what is commonly referred to as its “ticking time bomb”. Europe’s population is growing older and while this may render conflict less likely it also poses significant fiscal challenges to Europe’s current system of social welfare and pensions. The US has a stronger demographic outlook while India and other developing countries make Europe’s demographic look like a form of advanced sclerosis. Militarily Europe is a pale shadow of its former self. European defence spending languishes at around 1.7%, compared to US spending which stood at just over 5% in 2008, while China continues to increase its defence budget by over 10% annually. Robert Kagan’s quip that Europeans are from Venus while Americans are from Mars seems to ring true.
Several recent events lend credence to the thesis that European influence and power are on a downward slope. Russia felt confident enough to both invade Georgia and to engage in a diplomatic conflict with Britain within the last year. Following the disturbances in the aftermath of the disputed elections in Iran, it was British diplomats who were detained rather than those of the “great Satan”. Britain one of Europe’s most powerful countries is perceived as toothless. China’s decision to cancel the EU-China summit in 2008 as well as moves towards a G 2 unit seems to confirm the hypothesis of a European decline towards irrelevance.
However, there are certain recent trends or even points of view which contradict the notion of a degenerative European decline. Firstly, the ideological conflict derided as passé by Fukuyama and others in the 1990’s is back. This is evident when one looks at the increasingly alluring form of authoritarian capitalism which has catapulted China into its role as a superpower and which until recently seemed to be propelling Russia back to its former greatness. Faced with this challenge, Europe the continent which invented what has proven to be the most effective form of political organisation in history – the nation state – can play a key role in reinforcing the bedrock of liberal democracy on which the US is built. The US should not underestimate the role that Europe can play in disseminating and protecting the values which the US prizes. This role has been reinforced within the last 10 months as the ideology behind profit driven US capitalism has been discredited by the financial crisis and the ensuing economic downturn. Europe’s social market capitalism has suddenly become increasingly attractive to countries who have been shocked by the widespread destruction seemingly inherent to the American model. This ideological influence confers Europe with a sense of relevancy which it would appear difficult to ignore, in particular in the midst of current efforts to reform capitalism.
Using the definition advanced by Joseph Nye which sees power as a diffuse and multiform concept one can point to this ideological influence as well as the EU’s ability to create rapidly universalising norms, regulations and standards as evidence of the EU’s widespread “soft power”. The fact that the Wall Street Journal and other papers have begun to refer to Europe’s efforts to enforce various norms as proof of its “normative imperialism”, suggests influence and power and definitely not irrelevance. Similarly the fact that Europe contains two states who are both permanent members of the UN security council and have nuclear weapons denotes a certain relevance.
A further point of view is that of Gideon Rachman who sees Europe’s weakness as the means of acceding to a sort of “nirvana”, a way for Europe to surrender the multitude of responsibilities which clutter the agendas of the world’s great powers. For him, Europe has thrown off its yoke and the “white mans burden” or a sense of a “mission civilisatrice” have no place in the new Europe. I agree with him that Europe’s presence on the world stage has shrunk considerably from the giddy heights of the pre-20th century world. However, it is far from irrelevant. Nonetheless, the question as to whether the path towards irrelevance is an attractive one demands serious reflection.
The success of Europe’s endeavour to become the pioneer of a new type of power will ultimately define the continents relevance in the 21st century.
