In June 2008, a proud nation riding on a wave of prosperity voted no to the Lisbon Treaty. On October the 2nd the people of Ireland will vote again. The current landscape is vastly different to that of June 2008. With hopes that the Irish banks are solvent looking increasingly fanciful, house prices down 20-30 percent and still falling, and unemployment at a 14 year high the swagger of the Celtic tiger has been humbled. What does this mean for Eurocrats anxiously chewing their nails in Brussels?
At the moment it is looking likely that they will soon be able to rouse from EU from its institutional hibernation and into an era of a European President, a diplomatic service and perhaps a European army. Unfortunately, the no vote of last year was more an inditement of the incompetence of Irish politicians, voters parochial focus, and the vulnerability of the public to base, if well funded, scaremongering. The government’s negotiation of guarantees regarding the autonomy of Ireland’s policy on military neutrality, taxes and abortion will starve the no campaign of its signature objection. The Irish people have come to the realisation that a country of 4 million people cannot claw its way out of such a deep economic quagmire without the benefits of EU membership. Similarly, the government has hopefully learned its lesson and we should not see a repeat of the mind-blowing naivety displayed by the Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern when he admitted to the press that he had not read the treaty. These evolutions all favour a Yes vote. However, lets look at these areas in more detail.
According to a recent report by 66 leading non-government economists, while it is difficult to compute the exact benefits of a Yes vote, the deleterious effects of a No vote are much easy to identify. A No vote would impact negatively on international confidence in the Irish economy and thus increase our cost of borrowing. Similarly, our role as a committed member of the EU helps attract international investment. DFI is the lifeblood of the Irish economy, a no vote would imperil our attractiveness to large multinationals looking for a base in Western Europe. On balance 91 percent of the economists believed that from a purely economic point of view Ireland should vote yes.
It is also relevant to note that the result of Ireland’s vote will have effects far beyond those on the Irish economy or the careers of EU Presidential hopefuls. As an economic and regulatory pole the institutional health of the EU directly impacts on the countries which border it. A revitalised EU would act as a stabilising and moderating force across Russia’s eastern borders as well as in Turkey and thus into the Middle East. An outdated and stagnant structure could well provoke instability. This is a reality, our actions do not happen in a vacuum and we should not act like they do.
Thankfully, a majority of Irish people see Ireland’s membership of the EU as a positive thing, a recent Irish Times poll put that number at 80 percent. The challenge for the Yes campaigners is to motivate voters given the treaty is largely a matter of improving political and administrative procedures. Sexy it is not. However, by centering their campaign about whether we want to be part of a more effective European Union, banishing any lingering complacency and ruthlessly countering the No campaign’s propaganda a Yes vote is highly achievable. MEP’s fingernails should be safe.
At the moment it is looking likely that they will soon be able to rouse from EU from its institutional hibernation and into an era of a European President, a diplomatic service and perhaps a European army. Unfortunately, the no vote of last year was more an inditement of the incompetence of Irish politicians, voters parochial focus, and the vulnerability of the public to base, if well funded, scaremongering. The government’s negotiation of guarantees regarding the autonomy of Ireland’s policy on military neutrality, taxes and abortion will starve the no campaign of its signature objection. The Irish people have come to the realisation that a country of 4 million people cannot claw its way out of such a deep economic quagmire without the benefits of EU membership. Similarly, the government has hopefully learned its lesson and we should not see a repeat of the mind-blowing naivety displayed by the Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern when he admitted to the press that he had not read the treaty. These evolutions all favour a Yes vote. However, lets look at these areas in more detail.
According to a recent report by 66 leading non-government economists, while it is difficult to compute the exact benefits of a Yes vote, the deleterious effects of a No vote are much easy to identify. A No vote would impact negatively on international confidence in the Irish economy and thus increase our cost of borrowing. Similarly, our role as a committed member of the EU helps attract international investment. DFI is the lifeblood of the Irish economy, a no vote would imperil our attractiveness to large multinationals looking for a base in Western Europe. On balance 91 percent of the economists believed that from a purely economic point of view Ireland should vote yes.
It is also relevant to note that the result of Ireland’s vote will have effects far beyond those on the Irish economy or the careers of EU Presidential hopefuls. As an economic and regulatory pole the institutional health of the EU directly impacts on the countries which border it. A revitalised EU would act as a stabilising and moderating force across Russia’s eastern borders as well as in Turkey and thus into the Middle East. An outdated and stagnant structure could well provoke instability. This is a reality, our actions do not happen in a vacuum and we should not act like they do.
Thankfully, a majority of Irish people see Ireland’s membership of the EU as a positive thing, a recent Irish Times poll put that number at 80 percent. The challenge for the Yes campaigners is to motivate voters given the treaty is largely a matter of improving political and administrative procedures. Sexy it is not. However, by centering their campaign about whether we want to be part of a more effective European Union, banishing any lingering complacency and ruthlessly countering the No campaign’s propaganda a Yes vote is highly achievable. MEP’s fingernails should be safe.
