Friend or Foe? The USA and China.

(A map purporting to substantiate the Chinese claim that they "discovered" America before Columbus)

Sino-American relations are arguably the most important bilateral relationship in the world. While the EU surpasses both of them in terms of economic weight, I believe the shape of the international system over the next century will ultimately be decided by the relationship between China and America. However, since the early 1970’s when Kissinger and Nixon officially restored diplomatic contact with China, their relations have been continuously buffeted by an array of factors. From posturing over the status of Taiwan, to the occasional nationalistic anti-American outbursts, such as those that followed the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade by NATO planes in 1999, the formulation of strategy on both sides has been impeded by the perception and misperception of the others intentions.

What does the future of US-Chinese relations look like? To what degree are the scars from the fall of the Middle Empire from a position of almost unshakeable domination to its humiliation at the hands of the western powers during 19th century still present in China? And most importantly, is the US capable of seeing beyond the paradigm of the Chinese threat to that of China as a long term strategic ally?

In order to respond to these questions one has to look at whether either country has what could be termed overarching foreign policy goals, and to the extent, or not, to which these are compatible. In the case of China since the reforms launched by Deng Xioaping its leadership have consistently reaffirmed two concomitant goals: economic modernisation and political stability. To which could be added territorial stability, and in particular a resolution to prevent Taiwanese independence. For America one can identify a desire to maintain and perpetuate their hegemony, which includes broadening the reach of their strategic and economic interests and to a lesser degree than his predecessor but still present under President Obama, the spread of American values.

Taking these two goals as the foundations of Chinese policy assumes that China will continue to adhere to Deng’s motto on the international stage - “hide brightness and nourish obscurity”. However, while the idea of a “peaceful emergence” and of a “world of harmony” were used to reassure both China’s neighbours and the west that China’s growth was not a threat, recently Chinese leaders have showed a greater readiness to employ the term great power. Yet this should not worry the West as although Chinese nationalism is a potent, volatile and worrying force, the Chinese leadership realise that the economic growth which provides the foundation of China’s political and social stability is dependent upon China’s insertion within the same international system which has allowed the quadrupling in size of the Chinese economy during the last two decades. Indeed, Robert Zoellick while assistant secretary of state in 2005 called on China to assume the role of a responsible stakeholder in the international system.

This call as well as the continued development of the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) under the tutelage of Henry Paulson are signs that the US recognises that if it wants to maintain its hegemony it needs to integrate China into the international system. In order to do so the US will have to coax China into overcoming its fear of multilateral engagement and continue to reform international institutions to ensure they remain congruent with an evolving reality. Any suggestion that the US should try and actively contain Chinese growth in a re-enactment of Kennan’s policy of containment displays an ignorance of the fact that globalisation has created a strategic and economic interdependence among states that renders this approach counter-productive. Similarly, I believe that this interdependence will prevent the realisation of the Sino-American conflict which John Mearsheimer views as increasingly probable.

While I have no hesitation in condemning the blatant disregard that Beijing routinely shows for human rights I believe that this will not derail US-Chinese cooperation. The fact that during Hilary Clinton’s recent visit to China she did not repeat the condemnation of China’s human rights record that she has vociferously voiced in the past was a further reminder that economic and strategic considerations will take precedence over humanitarian scruples. Indeed before she set off for Asia she declared in an interview with the BBC that "our pressing on those issues (human rights, Taiwan and Tibet) can't interfere with the global economic crisis, the global climate change crisis and the security crises."

The global economic crisis has served to highlight the need for increased cooperation between two and the urgency with which the west must try and increase China’s involvement in and commitment to international institutions such as the IMF and the WTO. Accusations over exchange rates and the temptation to engage in protectionism should be carefully avoided. While the Chinese government will face increasing civil unrest as many face the spectre of unemployment without any social security (some put the number of recent job losses as high as 20 million) , as Minxin Pei explains in a recent edition of Foreign Affairs its highly tuned mechanisms of repression mean it is unlikely to lose power.

Chinese growth looks set to continue. America has faltered, badly. However, with America looking to China to respond to Geithner calls for a bigger gobal stimulus and China heavily reliant on America both as a destination for its exports and as its major source of FDI conflict in the short term looks unlikely. China, at least for now, seems to believe that in its re-emergence “the road to the East runs through the West.”