A road to nowhere?

I recently wrote about the deadlock in the talks between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai on the formation of a coalition government in Zimbabwe (see here). Mr Tsvangirai and his party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), cited Mr Mugabe's refusal to consider handing over the control of the police and the army as the major impediment to progress. On the 30th of January Mr Tsvangirai signed an agreement which will see him sworn in as the Zimbabwean Prime Minister (alongside President Mugabe), and the MDC occupy 11 of the 31 cabinet posts including finance health and education.What has changed since Mr Tsvangirai's despairing statement on the 19th of January, and should we be content?

A number of factors both domestic and international have come to bear over the past two weeks. Firstly, african leaders have been putting increasing pressure on Tsvangirai to join a coalition government. The South African Development committee (SADC) has played a key role in negotiations and according to recent reports was becoming frustrated with Mr Tsvangirai's refusal to enter into a coalition government. Indeed, it was South Africa the dominant power in the region who pushed Tsvangirai to accept joint control of the police and army, a proposal he had previously rejected. Mr Tsvangirai has had to be wary of his interaction with neighbouring countries as long term he will be reliant on there support in his quest to transfrom Zimbabwe's fortunes.

Secondly, Mr T.svangirai has recently spoken out about the urgent need to tackle the growing humanitarian crisis with Botswana’s president, Seretse Khama Ian Khama, declaring that Zimbabwe has “literally become like one big refugee camp, full of people who are living lives of misery” Western countries have made it clear that a rescue for the Zimbabwean economy will only be considered when Mugabe has been sidelined and reforms have begun. There are also hopes that MDC supporters and other members of the opposition who are currently languishing in jails around the country will be freed.

External pressure applied both by neighbouring countries and by the western powers has been key in the formulation of this coalition, but does this serve as an example of peaceful and desirable regime change? The first response must be 'yes', the international community has rightly supported the rightful victor in last years Presidential election. However, the fact that Robert Mugabe retains the support of the SADC, after an election their own observers denounced as neither free nor fair, sets a dangerous precedent for ruling parties who sense their hold on power slipping. The extent of human suffering that Mugabe has inflicted on his people, a suffering compounded by the western decision to withold state sponsored aid further complicates any evaluation of the West's role.

Mr Tsvangirai now faces his biggest challenge. Mugabe will do everything in his still considerable power to neutralise the MDC as a political force. However, it is only from within the organs of government that Mr Tsvangirai can introduce the reforms his country so badly needs. Trapped in a political quandry Mr Tsvangirai chose the high road, it is now the responsability of the international community, and in particular the SADC to make sure he doesn't get diverted.