A glimmer of hope?

The conflict in Gaza is not going to go away. There is not, nor will there be a quick-fix solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict. However, this does not mean that a solution is not possible. Since the declaration of the ceasefire on the 18th of January there have been both heartening and discouraging signs.

Firstly, the appointment of George Mitchell as the US envoy to the Middle East embodies the kind of coherent and pragmatic logic that many hope will define the Obama administration. Mitchell played a key role as a facilitator in the talks which led to the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland, and which have resulted in a power sharing executive, the symbolic reconciliation of Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley, and the disarmament of the major paramilitary groups. During the talks Mitchell won the respect of both sides through a patience which, although criticised by some at the time, proved ultimately successful. In an interview with the Guardian newspaper in 2007, George Mitchell set out the framework he used in Northern Ireland and one that, if applied, would bode particularly well for the Middle East (for an outline of this framework see this link) .

Another positive development is that the international community has taken a renewed interest in reviving the peace process in the Middle East. Indeed this could be one of the major positives Israel takes from this war, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak have widely criticised the UN and other international organisations for turning a blind eye towards Hamas rockets fired into Israel. The Israeli invasion of Gaza has created a situation where the international community can no longer stand idly by, and recent soundings about NATO patrols in the sea lanes near Gaza are one concrete example of a possible international intervention which could help the area move towards peace.

However, the signing of the ceasefire has not dictated an end to open hostilities. An Israeli soldier died in a bomb attack on the Israeli-Gaza border on Tuesday, an event followed by an eminently recognisable spiral of retaliatory attacks with Israeli first bombing targets in Gaza and then Hamas launching a missile into Israel. Hamas did not claim responsibility for the bomb attack and some sources attribute it to the group, World Jihad. This accusation highlights what will be a key challenge in any peace process; small groups of extremists who through acts of violence will attempt to derail any progress. Both Israel and Hamas will have to show restraint and take a long term viewpoint in this regard, an approach rendered significantly more difficult by Israel’s policy of deterrence which obliges it to respond disproportionately to any attacks.

The idea of a “media war” has gained increasing currency in regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with accusations from both sides about sinister media plots and hidden agendas, and Israel forbidding journalists from entering Gaza during the conflict. Debate surrounding media coverage has continued with the BBC and Sky television’s recent refusal to broadcast an emergency appeal for Gaza provoking widespread anger. Mark Thompson the director general of BBC cited the channel’s imperative to maintain its balanced and objective coverage of the conflict as the rationale behind the decision.

Any negotiations will require significant compromises. The question as to whether the war in Gaza has rendered these compromises more likely remains to be answered.